Independent academic analysis from The Budget Lab at Yale — the most-cited tariff research shop in U.S. policy press — finds the current Trump tariff regime is costing the average American household $650 to $780 a year in higher prices. If the Section 122 tariffs are made permanent, that loss climbs to $1,130 to $1,340 a year. Lower-income families are hit roughly three times harder than the top decile.
Source: The Budget Lab at Yale, “State of U.S. Tariffs: April 2, 2026.”
What a “tariff” actually does to your grocery bill
A tariff is a tax on imported goods. The U.S. company importing the good pays the tax to U.S. Customs. Most economic analysis — including the Yale Budget Lab work cited above — shows that tax is then passed through to American consumers in the form of higher prices on those goods, or on goods that compete with them domestically.
That is why economists describe tariffs as a consumption tax. And it is why the burden falls hardest on lower-income families: people who spend most of what they earn on groceries, clothes, appliances, and gasoline pay a bigger share of their income to a tariff than people who save most of what they earn.
The numbers, explained
Yale Budget Lab’s April 2, 2026 update on the current tariff regime:
- Consumer prices, short run: about 1.0% higher under the current regime, assuming full pass-through.
- Average household cost, if Section 122 expires as scheduled: $650 to $780 per year.
- Average household cost, if Section 122 is made permanent: $1,130 to $1,340 per year.
- Distributional effect: the lowest-income tenth of households loses about 1.1% of post-tax income (or 1.9% if Section 122 is extended). The top tenth loses about 0.4% (or 0.6% if extended). That is roughly a three-to-one regressive ratio.
- Long-run growth: the U.S. economy is persistently 0.1% smaller — about $27 billion a year in 2025 dollars.
Where you feel it this summer
Tariffs apply across the consumer economy. The categories most relevant to a summer affordability story:
- Air conditioners and small appliances. Many AC units, fans, and replacement parts are imported. Tariff costs roll into shelf prices.
- Imported food. Out-of-season produce, certain seafood, and specialty cookout items see direct tariff pass-through.
- Cars and auto parts. A summer with new-car shopping or a repair gets more expensive.
- Building and renovation materials. Anyone re-doing a deck or fixing a roof this summer is paying for tariffs on imported lumber, fixtures, and steel.
- Consumer goods broadly. Yale Budget Lab’s “+1.0% on the price level” is a small-sounding number that compounds across the basket.
The grocery basket on this site shows +6.0% YoY for a cookout-for-four (BLS, March 2026) — far above the headline +3.3% all-items inflation read. Multiple drivers contribute: weather, beef-cattle inventory, transportation costs, and yes, tariffs on imported inputs. Tariffs are one of several pressures, not the only one.
Sources
- The Budget Lab at Yale — “State of U.S. Tariffs: April 2, 2026”
- The Budget Lab at Yale — Tracking the Economic Effects of Tariffs
- Sourced rows in
data/external_notes/tariff_sources.csv
What the campaign claims
Independent Yale academic analysis says the current tariff regime is costing the average American household between $650 and $1,340 a year in higher prices, depending on whether key tariffs expire or are extended. The burden falls hardest on lower-income families.
This is direct causal language under our guidelines: the policy is specific (the tariff regime), the mechanism is documented (consumer-price pass-through), and the dollar figure comes from a credible third-party academic source — not from us.
What the campaign does not claim
- We do not claim tariffs explain all inflation. Many factors drive the cost of living; the +1.0% Yale number is consistent with that.
- We do not present every household as paying exactly $650 or $1,340 — those are averages, and the distributional table is more important than the average for low-income narrative.
- We do not invent a tariff number. Every dollar figure on this page is sourced to Yale Budget Lab’s published research.